U.S. soy export projections hold steady as U.S-China negotiate trade deal12/11/2018 | Soybean Exports, Soybean News, Economics
By Matthew Wilde, ISA senior writer
The December U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports released today were uneventful as expected, but analysts say potential soybean sales to China could cause prices to trend higher.
National soybean yield and acreage estimates remained unchanged from last month at 52.1 bushels per acre and 88.3 million acres, respectively, the reports said. No movement was expected prior to the release of final crop numbers Jan. 11.
U.S. soybean export estimates for the 2018-19 marketing year remained the same at 1.9 billion bushels, as did ending stocks at 955 million bushels.
Brazil and Argentina’s soybean crops are projected at 122 million metric tons and 55 million metric tons, respectively. World soybean ending stocks increased slightly at a projected 115.33 million metric tons.
“That’s not a friendly number,” said Cory Bratland of Kluis Commodity Advisors, based in Wayzata, Minnesota. “The trade is pricing in big crops.”
Bratland told clients during a webinar today that markets will likely trade sideways in the near-term, but that could change.
January soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade held steady at $9.09 per bushel shortly after the reports were released at 11 a.m. By 1:30 p.m., prices rose 5 ½ cents per bushel.
“There’s reports of productive trade talks with China and sales, possibly 5-8 million metric tons, could come any night or morning,” Bratland said. “Be ready to sell rallies. Basis levels have narrowed a bit.”
The USDA projects the season-average soybean price at $7.85 to $9.35 per bushel for the marketing year, which ends Aug. 31, 2019. That’s unchanged at the midpoint.
Soybean meal and oil price forecasts are also unchanged at $290 to $330 per short ton and 28 to 32 cents per pound, respectively, according to the latest reports.
Contact Matthew Wilde at email@example.com
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