A timeline of 2025 trade relations between U.S. and China

November 4, 2025 | Aaron Putze, APR

Editor’s Note: This is an evolving situation, and this page will be updated with the latest information.

1 metric ton of whole soybeans = 36.74 bushels

Last updated Nov. 3, 2025.

The Iowa Soybean Association (ISA) is actively monitoring the trade situation between the United States and China. The Oct. 30, 2025, announcement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is a welcome sign for Iowa farmers. Market access, with China and other partners, is vital to driving soybean demand.

While heralding China’s announced purchase of 12 million metric tons of soybeans, ISA continues to seek a remedy for lost sales and income opportunities throughout most of 2025.

“With the market price for a bushel of soybeans increasing by more than 60 cents on the news of China’s purchase, it’s a reminder that markets underperformed throughout the year,” says ISA Sr. Director of Market Development Grant Kimberley.

As the markets wait for China’s announced purchases to become actual orders, ISA continues to advocate for the EPA’s finalization of renewable volume obligations for 2026 (a record 5.61 billion gallons), a reallocation of proposed small refinery exemptions, diversifying international demand through new trade partnerships and addressing chronically high fertilizer and crop input prices that strain farmer cash flow and opportunities for profit.

Nov. 1, 2025

The market continues to digest the Oct. 30 announcement from Korea. American Soybean Association expects that China will purchase less than 20 million metric tons (MMT) of the current U.S. crop with the announced levels. China has purchased an average of 24 MMT from the last two crops. The larger purchases of South American soy this calendar year reduces China’s residual needs from the United States. The 25 MMT commitment levels in upcoming years are in line with the past couple of years but are lower than the five-year average. However, basis in the Northern Plains and at the ports ticks up on the news. U.S. port prices are now close to Brazilian levels. As of Nov. 1, China hadn’t signed a contract to buy U.S. soy since the reported announcements.

Oct. 30, 2025

U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi meet in South Korea. Following the much-anticipated meeting between the presidents of the world’s two largest economies, the administration reportedly announces a near-term Chinese purchase commitment of 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans (or roughly 441 million bushels). Those purchases are said to be made by the end of the calendar year. China also reportedly commits to purchasing an additional 25 MMT annually through 2028 (or 918.5 million bushels). China purchased nearly 23 MMT, or 841 million bushels, of U.S. soybeans during the 2024-25 marketing year. China imported an average for 29 million metric tons or U.S. soybeans from 2020-2024. To put that number into context, Iowa farmers are expected to produce 560 million bushels in 2025 after a 680-million-bushel crop in 2024.

Iowa Soybean Association reacts to the announced purchase. In a statement ISA President Tom Adam says the announced deal “addresses many of the concerns around market access to China following months of stalled purchases and uncertainty.” The farmer from Harper (Keokuk County) says Iowa farmers “have been eager to reestablish a stable and long-term relationship that positions us for success moving forward. We are very grateful to President Trump for making soybeans a priority in negotiations with China.”

Oct. 29, 2025

Rumor in advance of much-anticipated meeting between Trump and Xi that China will pre-purchase three cargoes of soybeans (roughly 180,000 metric tons) on way to an eventual buy of 5-10 million metric ton (MMT) for the 2025-26 marketing year. For perspective, China bought about 22-24 MMT last year and usually buys closer to 30 MMT, give or take most years historically.

Oct. 24, 2025

Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announces initiation of a Section 301 investigation into China’s implementation of the Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the People’s Republic of China—commonly known as the Phase One Agreement. The investigation will examine whether China has fully implemented its commitments under the agreement and determine what actions, if any, are appropriate.

Oct. 2, 2025

On the sixth month anniversary of Trade Liberation Day, ISA President Tom Adam suggests three strategies the Trump administration could implement to support soybean farmers:

1. The administration to prioritize a trade agreement with China that immediately expedites soybean purchases. Each day that passes between now and a possible meeting later this month between President Trump and Chinese President Xi closes the window tighter on the critical sales period for U.S. soybeans (October-early February) and as farmers begin making planting intentions for 2026;
2. Congress and the administration act swiftly to provide immediate trade mitigation funding to farmers as a bridge until meaningful export agreements are reached. While not ideal, federal farm payments will enable many farmers to survive another year; and
3. The administration finalizes the Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) and reallocates Small Refinery Exemptions as proposed earlier this year by the Environmental Protection Agency. This strong support of homegrown energy would boost demand for soybean oil and soybean prices.

“Agriculture thrives when America leads on trade. We can’t afford to let uncertainty and political maneuvering erode the markets farmers have spent decades cultivating. The crop is here. The quality is proven. The demand exists. What’s missing is the resolve to reconnect America’s farmers with a world of buyers who want to purchase our soybeans,” ISA President Tom Adam says.

September 24, 2025

Trump administration announces $20 billion financial assistance package was provided to stabilize Argentina’s economy. The move immediately led to Argentina’s suspension of a 26% export tax followed by ample purchases of Argentinian soy by China. The timing occurred when China traditionally begins purchasing large quantities of U.S. soy. The bailout of Argentina all but assured China’s ability bypass U.S. soybean farmers through February 2026, at which time it can resume purchases of Brazilian soy.

September-October

Iowa and U.S. farmers head to the fields for soybean harvest. Many Iowa farmers report yields better than expected, with whole field averages consistently in the 60 and 70s with many reports of 80-plus bushels per acre.

Summer 2025

The American Soybean Association in partnership with state soybean associations raises concerns about the lack of Chinese soybean purchases, including zero new-crop commitments. At a time when Tik Tok, rare earth minerals, cars and airplanes are getting all the attention, soybean farmers elevate the need for soybeans to be prioritized by the administration in ongoing trade talks with China, the world’s largest purchaser of soybeans.

April-May 2025

Iowa farmers head to the fields to plant the 2025 crop. The USDA NASS survey says Iowa farmers intend to plant 9.6 million acres to soybeans and 13.5 million acres to corn.

April 2, 2025

President Trump declares the day as Trade Liberation Day. On this day, tariffs are signed as part of a broader strategy to address trade deficits and counter trade barriers faced by U.S. exporters. The tariffs include a 10% baseline tariff on imports from nearly all countries.

January 2020

President Trump and President Xi sign the Economic and Trade Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the People’s Republic of China—commonly known as the Phase One Agreement. The agreement seeks to address longstanding trade imbalances and structural barriers and included Chinese purchase commitments.

---

Back