Plan now to market a potential record crop

July 24, 2025 | Kriss Nelson

Farmers are halfway through the growing season; what marketing strategies should they use to maximize their profits?

Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, says he’s focused on two bins.

“The first bin is cash,” Kluis says. “Hopefully, the 2024 crop is already sold. If not, have a plan in place, because you don’t want to carry that into August—that’s typically been the seasonal low over the past several years.”

The second bin is new crop bushels.

“Ideally, you’ve already forward contracted some of those bushels as a hedge, because prices have certainly been trending lower,” he adds.

Iowa’s corn and soybeans are performing better than expected, surpassing those of neighboring states, which suggests a potentially large yield and a possible storage shortage.

“I’m really concerned that with such a large crop developing, we could see low futures prices and a weak basis for both corn and soybeans,” says Kluis. “Even if you don’t like the current new-crop price levels, I think there’s still additional downside risk as we head into the October harvest, whether that’s in cash prices, futures, basis or a combination of all three. Iowa has some of the best crop conditions in the country and has the potential for record corn and soybean yields, which could pressure prices further.”

Making a marketing plan

Kluis says it’s important to have a marketing plan in place. In the short term, having storage available can be helpful, but it’s not always a sound long-term strategy.

“The key is to avoid sales in August, September and October,” Kluis says. “As a farmer, you’re selling on a wide basis during those months, and there’s nothing a commodity advisor or broker can do to help you make those dollars back.”

Kluis provides three things to consider when making a marketing plan:

1) Know your cost of production

“Knowing your cost of production allows you to know if you are selling to make a profit,” he says. “Certainly in Iowa, where you are looking at larger yields when you update your spreadsheet, your expected production numbers may need to be adjusted higher, and that could mean you need to lower your target price expectations.”

2) Price and time targets

“I always think there are certain key price targets you should have above the market,” he says. “This year, a lot of our price targets for hard selling hit in January and February. Quite often, it seems like we’re making forward sales in April and May, but this year, the highs all came early.”

3) Potential crop insurance and government payment programs

Factor in potential crop insurance and government program payouts when setting price targets.

“Look at potential crop insurance payments and the potential with higher reference prices. Consider the possible payout you could receive from ARC-County or PLC — the government program you signed up for last year. And with the recent legislation that passed through Congress, they really ramped up some potential payouts and benefits under the government programs because it significantly raised the reference prices.”

A marketing rollercoaster

Three negative factors have recently affected the market: improved weather, excellent crop conditions and continued uncertainty in trade.

“Supposedly, we’re going to be putting some agreements together. But with each passing week, we’re getting closer to the August 1 tariff deadline,” says Kluis. “It looks like the U.S. and China will meet in Stockholm, Sweden, possibly to agree on a 90-day extension to delay any tariff increases. That would give Presidents Xi Jinping and Trump time to meet later in October or November. Hopefully, they can work out a longer-term trade agreement so we’re not constantly dealing with these 90-day deadlines.”

2025 Kluis Summer Grower Meetings

How low can prices go? What factors could turn markets around? And when might a change in trend occur? Farmers seeking marketing strategy advice to answer questions are invited to the 2025 Kluis Summer Grower Meetings.

The first meeting will take place Wednesday, July 30, at the Wild Rose Casino and Hotel, 777 Main St., Emmetsburg. The second will be held Tuesday, August 12, at Hotel Julien, 200 Main Street, Dubuque.

Both meetings are free and open to the public. You can register at this link.

Written by Kriss Nelson.

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