As harvest nears, soy exports in limbo

August 14, 2025 | Bethany Baratta

Earlier this week, President Donald Trump signed an executive order extending the current pause on high U.S. tariffs for Chinese goods by 90 days, avoiding a snapback to peak tariff levels set earlier this year. The order came just hours before the previous pause was set to expire.

The extension to November follows the latest round of U.S.-China trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, late last month. Without it, U.S. duties on Chinese goods and reciprocal Chinese tariffs on U.S. products, including soybeans, would have reverted to levels upwards of 145%. U.S. soy currently faces a total duty, including retaliatory tariffs, of 34.07% going into the Chinese market.

Grant Kimberley, senior director of market development for the Iowa Soybean Association (ISA), says the association is elevating the importance of trade in several ways.

“ISA, along with our partners at American Soybean Association, U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC), and other stakeholders, are working hard to convey the importance of having continued market access in existing markets, creating new opportunities in emerging markets, and reopening the Chinese market,” he says.

“We continue to actively work to communicate with key buyers and stakeholders in our markets around the world,” says Kimberley, who farms near Maxwell.

Timing is critical

China is the world’s largest soybean importer, purchasing more than 100 million metric tons annually. Before the trade war began in 2018, the United States shipped about 36 million metric tons of soybeans to China each year—worth over $14 billion. Retaliatory tariffs slashed those exports by more than 70%, allowing Brazil to overtake the U.S. as China’s top supplier.

So far this marketing year, China has yet to purchase any new-crop U.S. soybeans.

“In 45 to 60 days we'll be in the glut of soybean harvest,” says Randy Miller, an Iowa Soybean Association board member and member of USSEC. “That's when we put beans on rail and ships and deliver to our customers around the world. If the world's largest buyer isn’t buying anything from the U.S., that’s a problem.”

Logistics add to the urgency. It takes two weeks by barge for soybeans to travel from Davenport to the Gulf, then another 30 days through the Panama Canal to China, according to Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition (STC). Shipping from western Iowa to the Pacific Northwest by rail takes five days, followed by another two weeks by vessel to China.

While storage facilities near ports can speed up shipments, Steenhoek says unpredictable trade policy disrupts the supply chain’s ability to plan, eroding reliability and competitiveness. “When you don't have predictability, it's really hard because there are so many things that you base on an assumption of what customer demand is going to be,” he says. “Take away the assumption, and you’re in limbo—an expensive place for agriculture to be.”

Turning to South America

Chinese importers have already booked about 8 million metric tons of soybeans for September and 4 million for October—every ton so far from South America, Reuters reports.

China could resume buying U.S. soybeans if an agreement to reduce duties is reached. Without tariffs, October U.S. soy shipments are about $40 per ton cheaper than Brazilian cargoes—but with tariffs, U.S. soy is priced out of the market.

“We continue to talk about the other inherent advantages of U.S. soy—the better amino acid profile, better energy content, better consistency and quality—but it still comes down to being cost competitive,” Kimberley says.

South America stands to gain as the U.S. and China struggle toward a resolution. The 2018–2019 dispute accelerated Chinese investment in Brazilian infrastructure, making South American logistics more efficient than ever. “Once you encourage someone to make investments into an alternative supply chain, they're going to continue to use it,” Steenhoek says. “There’s not a whole lot we can do about Brazil, but there’s a whole lot we can do here in the U.S. That’s all the more reason to invest strategically in our infrastructure.”

What’s ISA doing to elevate the issue?

“Trade is very important, and our association is conveying that information to our policy leaders, the administration and others,” Kimberley says. That means meeting with trade representatives at events like the Iowa State Fair, hosting trade delegations on Iowa farms, and participating in next week’s Soy Connext conference in Washington, D.C., which will bring together 700 growers, buyers and sellers from around the world.

“It starts by building relationships,” Kimberley says. “At Soy Connext, there are networking opportunities to get to know buyers and opportunities for actual sales and transactions with exporters, farmers and buyers all in one place.”

Embracing existing trade deals and expanding into new markets can boost prices and create long-term stability, Kimberley and Miller say.

“As we continue expanding domestic soybean crush capacity to meet rising demand for biodiesel and renewable diesel—strengthening our rural economy and energy security—it’s equally important to grow soybean meal exports,” Kimberley says. “Reducing reliance on China’s whole bean market while increasing our global soybean meal share enables us to process more soybeans domestically, creating added value and resilience for farmers.”

“Get the details of these trade agreements worked out and get them to where they're implemented and working,” Miller reiterated to Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg earlier this week. “It's great to say we have one (a deal), but it's like saying we have a farm bill. Until the rules are written and the farm bill's out, what do we have?”

Miller and other industry leaders stress that time is not on our side.

"Every single day that passes without a trade deal removing all tariffs on U.S. soybeans to China is another day the clock ticks down on our marketing year," Kimberley says. "Harvest is approaching fast, the world’s largest buyer remains on the sidelines, and if we miss this narrow window, those sales are gone for good. The buzzer will sound, the opportunity will vanish, and farmers will be left watching from the bench while competitors score in our place."

Written by Bethany Baratta.

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