Little movement in USDA’s December WASDE

December 11, 2025 | Kriss Nelson

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) December World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimates (WASDE) released on Tuesday can best be described as a “neutral report.”

“All of the 2025-2026  carryout numbers were well within the range of analysts’ expectations,” says Jacob Kleinberg, COO of publications for Roach Ag, adding all South American production numbers were left unchanged from the November WASDE.

The market’s reaction to the December WASDE report was about as exciting as the report itself.

“The market’s reaction to the WASDE report was muted,” says Kleinberg. “March corn continues to consolidate around the 20-day moving average near $4.45 a bushel. Soybeans continued in their downtrend, but found some support in Wednesday’s trade.”

Kleinberg noted Roach Ag is currently issuing a soybean buy signal and expects prices to find support at these levels.

No soy shifts

The uneventful report remains true for soybean estimates.

“There isn’t much notable for soybean numbers, unfortunately, as USDA left everything exactly the same from the November WASDE,” says Kleinberg. “The real story will be just how much China really steps in to buy over the next few months. They are only a quarter of the way to fulfilling their 12 million metric ton soybean export commitment by February. If we see an aggressive increase in pace for Chinese purchases, USDA may revise supply numbers down further.”

The U.S. soybean carryout was left unchanged at 290 million bushels, and the soybean export pace continues to trail the conservative USDA target, which is currently down 13% from a year ago.

Kleinberg noted that 2025–26 ending stocks remain near the five-year average, which is a positive sign supported by a record outlook for U.S. soybean crush.

A surprise to some analysts, Kleinberg says, came from the Brazilian production.
“The record outlook for Brazil soybean production was left unchanged at 175 million metric tons, and some analysts expected Brazilian production to increase,” he says. “However, the country is expected to dominate the world soybean trade starting in late February.”

Corn export surge

Turning to corn, USDA’s December update delivered its most significant change in export expectations.

“The USDA December WASDE report showed a much larger anticipated increase in U.S. corn exports, rising by 125 million bushels from the November update to 3.2 billion bushels,” says Kleinberg. “The shift came as the latest export inspections had reached 812 million bushels, up 69 percent from a year ago.”

USDA raises U.S. corn exports to a record 3.1 billion bushels in its December supply and demand update. Asked to explain the surge, Kleinberg says lower prices year over year helped stimulate the big jump in demand.

Kleinberg adds all other U.S. corn demand categories were left unchanged, which lowered the U.S. carryout to 2.029 billion bushels — the highest since the 2018–19 crop year following the bumper summer harvest. Outside the U.S., USDA left corn production unchanged for Argentina and Brazil but raised Ukraine’s estimate by 3 million tons.

Other commodities

The WASDE report also delivered a few changes in other commodity sectors.

Kleinberg reports the U.S. wheat balance was unchanged, while global ending stocks increased 7.5 million tons as USDA raised output for several countries, notably Canada, Argentina and the EU.

USDA raised 2025 U.S. red meat and poultry production while lowering pork. Cattle slaughter rates increased during the early fourth quarter.

Looking ahead

Looking ahead, Kleinberg says market attention will shift toward currency movement and interest rate decisions.

“Going forward, look for the trade to keep an eye on a potential weakening of the U.S. dollar,” he says. “The Fed did lower its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, in line with expectations, and markets are already pricing in two more cuts in 2026. A weaker dollar could increase global interest in U.S. agricultural exports.”

The next major set of USDA figures will arrive on Jan. 12, offering another key moment for the markets.

The Jan. 12 report will include the information obtained for the Dec. 1 grain stocks report, which is expected to show record on-farm inventories for corn and soybeans, Kleinberg says.

“Any cut to U.S. corn or soybean yields in the department’s Annual Crop Production report may help underpin CBOT prices,” he says.

Roach Ag is a member of the Iowa Soybean Association's Partners+ Program. Learn more about the value-added service by clicking here, or contact Kleinberg at jkleinberg@roachag.com or 561-206-0264.

Written by Kriss Nelson

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