Commodity Classic: Brazil’s weather and Midwest outlook shape soybean markets
March 12, 2026 | Kriss Nelson
More than 4,000 miles separate Iowa from Brazil, yet weather there influences soybean markets here.
During a presentation at Commodity Classic, Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag Solutions, told farmers that Brazil’s enormous production footprint continues to shape global soybean supply expectations.
“Brazil’s growing area is massive,” Snodgrass says. “When you overlay Brazil’s crop regions on the United States, the lower 48 essentially fit inside Brazil.”
That scale gives Brazil significant room to expand soybean acreage in the years ahead.
“We anticipate that over the next decade they could add another 40 million acres,” he says.
Brazil’s climate also tends to provide more consistent growing conditions than the Midwest.
“Much of Brazil’s production region has a more tropical climate,” Snodgrass says. “They typically don’t experience the same weather swings we can see here in the Midwest.”
Because of that stability, major production problems in Brazil are relatively rare. Recent weather monitoring has shown generally favorable growing conditions across much of the country.
“If you’re hoping for a weather problem in Brazil right now, you’re probably wasting your effort,” he says. “At this stage we have to assume they’re going to produce a good crop unless something major changes.”
While dry conditions had briefly emerged in northern Argentina and parts of Uruguay earlier in the season, storms moved through the region and largely eased those concerns. Current forecasts show some dry conditions in southern Brazil that may help harvest progress, though prolonged dry weather could eventually create challenges.
For now, however, global soybean markets are unlikely to see supply shocks from South America.
Short-term weather outlook
Instead, attention turns back to U.S. growing conditions.
Snodgrass says drought concerns entering the 2026 growing season remain a major question across parts of the Midwest and Plains.
“Right now, about 75 percent of the country has some level of drought conditions,” he says.
Early-season weather patterns, however, could begin to reverse some of those concerns. Forecast models are pointing toward a wetter pattern developing across parts of the central United States.
“We’re looking at a pattern developing that could bring significant rainfall to parts of the central U.S. over the next couple of weeks,” Snodgrass says.
Some forecasts suggest multiple inches of precipitation could fall across portions of the Mississippi and Missouri River valleys. If those rains materialize, they could help rebuild soil moisture heading into planting season.
“If the mid-South gets soaked in April, the odds of drought in places like Iowa, Illinois and Indiana during June and July drop considerably,” he says.
Long-term weather outlook
Longer-term forecasts remain uncertain. Snodgrass says ocean temperatures and broader global weather patterns will play a key role in shaping summer conditions across the Corn Belt.
Now, farmers should continue to focus on what they can control while monitoring weather signals as the growing season approaches.
“We can’t control what happens in Brazil or the global weather pattern,” Snodgrass says. “But we can pay attention to the signals that tell us how the season may develop.”
Written by Kriss Nelson.
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