Acreage shifts offer mixed signals

April 2, 2026 | Kriss Nelson

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (UDSA) latest Prospective Plantings report offered a clearer picture of 2026 acreage intentions, with numbers that landed close to expectations but still carried a few surprises for the market.

Acreage outlook

Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, says corn acres came in at 95.3 million, down 3.5 million acres from a year ago. However, the total was about 900,000 acres higher than trade expectations, suggesting farmers are not pulling back from corn as much as some anticipated.

“The numbers came in showing that corn acres would be less than last year, but not drop as much as expected,” Kluis says. “It actually came in very close to what our survey had indicated.”

Soybean acres were estimated at 84.7 million, below the trade expectation of 85.5 million, but still up 3.5 million acres from last year.

Once farmers have made early decisions and input purchases, acreage shifts tend to be more limited than markets sometimes assume.

“Once farmers lock in their decisions, they just don’t switch around as much as you would expect,” he says.

Shifting acres

Some of the acreage gains for both corn and soybeans are coming from declines in spring wheat. Kluis points to the Northern Plains, including the Dakotas and Minnesota, where reduced profitability has pushed farmers toward crops with stronger revenue potential.

Spring wheat acreage has declined from 10.2 million acres the past two years to 9.4 million acres this year, about 600,000 acres less than expected.

Kluis estimates roughly 40% of those acres are shifting to corn, another 40% to soybeans, with the remainder moving into other crops such as canola, sunflowers and edible beans.

“When you look at new-crop soybeans around $11.60 a bushel compared to wheat at $6.80, the revenue just isn’t there,” he says.

While government subsidy programs make raising corn and soybeans more attractive, Kluis says the primary driver to the acreage shift is market returns.

“Basis levels, quality discounts and other challenges have made wheat less competitive in many areas,” he says.

Market reaction

Market reaction to the report, which was released on Tuesday, was mixed and generally steady. Corn futures moved slightly higher, while soybeans dropped 15 to 18 cents early in the day before a late session rally had soybeans closing higher.

“I thought the report might be slightly bearish for corn, but it was still able to trade in the green,” Kluis says. “Soybeans dropped initially, but if we can get soybeans to close above $11.80, that would be positive on the charts.”

For new-crop soybeans, Kluis says resistance remains near $12, but current pricing still offers profit opportunities for some Iowa producers, particularly where basis levels are favorable.

Supply outlook

Beyond acreage, Kluis says the report serves as a key benchmark for future supply and demand projections and is also used to broaden federal budget and farm program forecasting.

Combined corn and soybean acreage currently totals about 179 million acres, but Kluis believes that number could trend closer to 181 million, depending on spring weather and prevented planting.

“When I tally up all the acres of corn, soybeans and wheat, it doesn’t seem to add up to a big enough number,” Kluis says. “I think we could ultimately see more corn and soybean acres in future reports.”

Quarterly grain stocks data released alongside the acreage report came in near expectations, though Kluis remains skeptical of USDA’s projected feed and residual use.

“It’s up over 200 million bushels from last year, yet we’ve got less cattle on feed and only about one percent more hogs,” he says. “That’s something the market will continue to watch.”

Marketing focus

As planting season ramps up, Kluis encourages farmers to stay engaged with markets, even during the busiest weeks in the field.

“Quite often when you’re planting, you should also be selling,” he says. “You’re growing money, and you’ve got to take time to watch and make marketing decisions when you’re busy.”

Written by Kriss Nelson.

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