(Photo: Iowa Soybean Association / Joclyn Kuboushek)
Dr. Doom's final forecast
May 1, 2026 | Kriss Nelson
Although soybean markets are showing modest improvement, uncertainty around trade, geopolitics and input costs continues to cloud the outlook.
“Everybody is preparing for another financially tough year,” Chad Hart, Iowa State University professor and Extension economist says. “We’re hopeful that things will slowly improve over time.”
Market signals
He points to recent movements in the soybean market.
“If you look at how prices have moved, especially over the last couple of months for the soybean market, we’ve been chipping away, gradually gaining,” Hart says. “At the beginning of 2026, we were down in the low $10 range. Now we’ve climbed our way up to where cash prices are in the high $10s and futures prices at least have an 11 in front of them now.”
Hart says part of the support comes from increased domestic use, including demand for biofuels.
“We’re figuring out how to use more soybeans here domestically, and it looks like we’ll continue to get a boost from that as we look at the potential for higher biomass-based diesel levels,” he says.
Global pressures
He also points to trade uncertainty, especially tied to China, but notes gains elsewhere.
“When you look outside of the Chinese market, we’ve been able to grow other markets as well,” Hart says. “It hasn’t been enough to offset the gyrations we’re seeing out of China, but it’s good to see growth in places like Mexico, Egypt, the European Union, Japan and Indonesia. We are building a more diversified structure when it comes to our soybean exports that will help us out regardless of what happens with China.”
Looking ahead, Hart says uncertainty remains high, including geopolitical events, tariffs and policy shifts.
“I’ll argue there’s still a lot of uncertainty,” he says. “The conflict involving Iran looms large for the soybean market because disruptions to Iranian oil flows ripple through global energy markets. Their biggest customer is China. How the Chinese respond to that could significantly complicate the storyline for soybeans because right now the verbal agreement we’ve got could easily disappear.”
Hart says higher oil prices can cut both ways.
“Wars tend to create a little price spike for basically all commodities,” he says. “But that price spike is also spiking some of our inputs. Oil prices going higher drives diesel prices higher, drives fertilizer prices higher. It has that negative feedback loop on the soybean market.”
At the same time, he says, higher energy prices can strengthen biofuels competitiveness.
“Higher oil prices offer greater opportunities for biofuels to continue to compete,” Hart says. “It’s mixed, it’s very uncertain.”
Cyclical markets
Even with shifting global dynamics, Hart says the agricultural economy still moves in cycles.
“I would argue it is still cyclical,” Hart says. “But there are some structural things that are going on.”
He points to Brazil’s dominance as one of those structural shifts.
“Ten years ago, we were the dominant producer. Now Brazil is by far the dominant,” Hart says. “We went from being the biggest one, but just by a little bit, to now we’re a very distant number two. That changes how our markets behave.”
Input pressure
He also flags input costs and how slowly they come down.
“The biggest thing I’d worry about would be the changes that are happening within our input cost structure,” Hart says. “The problem is now that cost structure working its way down is a lot slower than it used to be, and it’s because of that global competition.”
He compares this downturn to the last major one, but with less relief from costs.
“We’re sort of replaying the last downturn,” Hart says. “The difference is that the relief that we’re seeing from our input costs is smaller than it was back then.”
End of an era for Dr. Doom
After nearly two decades helping Iowa farmers navigate volatile grain markets, Chad Hart is stepping away from the role that made him one of the most recognizable voices in agricultural economics.
Over the years, Hart earned a reputation among farmers for delivering blunt market realities, earning the nickname “Dr. Doom”.
“When prices are high, my job is to remind you they won’t stay that way,” he says. “When we’re in situations like we are right now, my job is to remind you that things will get better, but they tend to get better more slowly than they decline.”
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Colleagues soon recognized Hart’s ability to translate complicated market signals into language farmers understood. Putting him in front of a farm audience quickly became one of Iowa State’s strengths.
That ability to translate complex markets into practical terms for farmers pulled him deeper into agricultural economics and extension work.
When longtime Iowa State University agricultural economist Bob Wisner retired, Hart was already filling in at meetings across the state. He recalls a meeting in Holstein where a farmer encouraged him to apply for Wisner’s old job.
“That sort of set it off for me,” Hart says.
Over the years, he says the role became much more than a paycheck.
“I enjoy talking with farmers and ranchers about their business,” Hart says. “Part of my role here is to take some of the research and bring it to the farmers to see the practical applications and hopefully improve farmers’ financial situations.”
Those conversations, he says, weren’t always easy. Some were lighthearted. Others centered on tough topics like controlling costs, cutting back and navigating downturns.
“But the discussions are meaningful no matter where we are in the cycle,” Hart says.
As for what comes next, Hart plans to pursue a longtime passion: baseball.
“I love baseball,” he says. “The goal is to travel around and go to all the Major League Baseball ballparks within one year.”
Written by Kriss Nelson.
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