John Deere tractor attached to auger

(Photo: Iowa Soybean Association)

USDA releases WASDE, NASS numbers

January 17, 2023 | Jeff Hutton

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut back its 2022 harvested acreage and production estimates in its recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

The USDA is now estimating U.S. soybean production for the 2022/23 marketing year at 4.276 billion bushels, down from a previous prediction of 4.346 billion, according to WASDE. And the Grain Stocks report shows 3.02 billion bushels in storage as of Dec. 1.

U.S. oilseed production for 2022/23 is estimated at 126 million tons, down 2 million from the previous report on smaller soybean, sunflower, canola and peanut crops. Soybean production is estimated at 4.276 billion bushels, down 69 million. Harvested area is estimated at 86.3 million acres, down 300,000 from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 600,000 bushels. The soybean export forecast is reduced 55 million bushels to 2 billion, reflecting lower supplies, reduced import demand for China, and a higher export forecast for Brazil. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced exports, ending stocks are projected at 210 million bushels, down 10 million from the previous forecast.

Meanwhile, the U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is projected at $14.20 per bushel, up 20 cents. The soybean meal price is projected at $425 per short ton, up $15. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 68 cents per pound. The 2022/23 foreign soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher stocks and lower production, crush and trade. Beginning stocks are raised due to an upward revision to Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean crop to 129.5 million tons, driven by higher-than-expected use through the end of the local year, according to the WASDE report.

Foreign 2022/23 soybean production is lowered 1.3 million tons as lower production for Argentina and Uruguay is partly offset by higher production for China and Brazil. Argentina’s soybean crop is reduced 4 million tons to 45.5 million on lower area and early season heat and dry weather conditions. China’s soybean crop is increased 1.9 million tons to 20.3 million on reports from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Brazil’s crop is increased 1 million tons to 153 million on higher area. Foreign 2022/23 soybean crush is reduced 2 million tons mainly for Argentina and China. Argentina’s crush is reduced on lower supplies while crush for China is reduced on a lower than-expected pace during the first quarter of the marketing year. Partly offsetting is higher soybean crush for Brazil. Foreign soybean exports are reduced on lower exports for Argentina that are partly offset by higher exports for Brazil. China’s imports are lowered 2 million tons to 96 million on lower crush demand. With higher beginning stocks and lower use, global soybean ending stocks are increased 800,000 tons to 103.5 million.

NASS report

Meanwhile, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) noted that soybean production in Iowa was estimated at 587 million bushels in 2022. This was down 7% from last year's 632 million bushels. The Iowa soybean crop yielded 58.5 bushels per acre in 2022. The harvested acreage of 10 million was unchanged from 2021. Soybean planted acreage, at 10.1 million, was unchanged from 2021.

The NASS noted that soybeans stored in all positions in Iowa on Dec. 1, 2022, totaled 481 million bushels, down 10% from December 2021. Of the total stocks, 45% were stored on-farm. Indicated disappearance for September-November 2022 was 157 million bushels, 11% above the 142 million bushels from the same quarter the previous year.

Iowa’s on-farm storage capacity on Dec. 1, 2022, was 2.05 billion bushels, unchanged from the same period in 2021. Iowa’s 840 off-farm storage facilities had a storage capacity of 1.52 billion bushels, also unchanged from the previous year. NASS reports that as of Dec. 1, 2022, the state had a total of 3.57 billion bushels of storage capacity.