Soybeans are nearly ready for harvest as farmers are growing more concerned for the lack of export commitments. (Photo: Iowa Soybean Association / Joclyn Kuboushek)
Another shock from USDA’s acreage numbers
September 17, 2025 | Kriss Nelson
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) continues to adjust acres, surprising farmers once again.
In its September World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, USDA increased expected soybean harvested acres by 209,000 acres.
However, USDA trimmed its soybean yield estimate by 0.1 bushel per acre to 53.5 bushels per acre. As a result of these adjustments, estimated soybean production increased 9 million bushels from August’s WASDE report to 4.301 billion bushels.
“USDA’s yield estimate would be a record, but production would be down from last year because of the sharp reduction in acreage,” says Brian Grete, senior grain and livestock analyst for CommStock Investments. “Even with the surprise increase in harvested acres from last month, there was a 5.7 million-acre decline from 2024.”
The corn yield estimate was lowered 2.1 bushels to 186.7 bushels per acre.
“The surprise was a nearly 1.4 million-acre increase to harvested acres,” says Grete. “That pushed production up 72 million bushels from August.”
If the corn estimates come to fruition, it would be record corn production and record yields, Grete says.
Balance sheet impacts
The revised soybean production estimate was reflected in the 2025-2026 balance sheet, with projected ending stocks rising by 10 million bushels from the previous month to 300 million bushels.
The shift to fewer planted soybeans kept the production estimate down.
“That would still be down 30 million bushels from last year and 42 million bushels from two years ago,” he says.
Soybean use continues to shift more of the USDA’s production and yield estimates toward domestic demand.
“USDA increased projected soybean crush 15 million bushels to a record 2.555 billion bushels, as the biofuels industry requires more supplies,” he says. “Exports were lowered 20 million bushels due to increased global competition and are now forecast to fall 190 million bushels from last year to 1.685 billion bushels.”
The U.S. is in its prime shipping season for U.S. soybeans, and China has been an absent buyer for 2025-26 amid the trade war.
Farmers are watching how USDA adjusts soybean yields and what that could mean for both production and demand.
“The assumption is USDA will lower soybean yield in the months ahead because of a dry finish,” says Grete. “For each bushel USDA trims from soybean yield, production falls by just over 80 million bushels. While that’s the focus for many in the market, a far greater impact would be felt by a resumption of exports to China.”
The USDA’s corn ending stocks forecast declined by 7 million bushels from August, as the increase in estimated production was more than offset by higher projected use.
“At 2.110 billion bushels, ending stocks for 2025-26 would remain ample. It would take at least another 2-bushel reduction in yield to get projected ending stocks below the psychological 2-billion-bushel level to grab traders’ attention,” he says.
Price impacts
USDA lowered its 2025-26 average cash on-farm soybean price by a dime to $10, equal to last year but down $2.40 from two years ago.
Meaningful rallies in the soybean market will depend on renewed demand from China.
“The biggest price response in the marketplace would be from a trade deal with China,” says Grete. “Barring that, soybean price rallies will likely remain limited, even if yield and production decline from September forward.”
USDA kept its average cash corn price at $3.90, down 40 cents from last year and 65 cents from two years ago.
Basis and marketing impacts
Grete explains soybean and corn basis levels are wide as harvest begins, exceptionally so in some areas, and aren’t expected to narrow with storage already tight. Old-crop supplies remain in both on-farm and commercial bins, while new-crop bushels are now moving off fields.
As of Sept. 15, soybean futures carried about 20 cents from November to January and another 15 cents to March. Corn futures showed roughly a 17-cent carry from December to March.
“Focus on shifts in basis and the futures spreads through harvest to gauge market signals for soybean and corn sales,” he says.
Written by Kriss Nelson.
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