by Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association
It is Friday in Istanbul, Turkey and it has been a sunny day. Unfortunately, we spent most of the day inside a conference room. However, we did get outside this evening and had dinner as a group in another excellent Turkish restaurant, this one with outside seating. Once again, way too much food, but interesting, and most of it was very good. However, this far into a trip such as this one, you do begin to look forward to getting home to eat a more traditional American meal.
The purpose of the conference today was to learn more about opportunities for increased soybean exports to Turkey and other countries in the region. Our first two speakers were both with the US Consulate office here in Istanbul. They helped us understand that even though the United States and Turkey have been strong military and diplomatic partners, issues related to trade between the two countries has not received as much attention and that trade between us should be much larger than it is. One of the challenges is that many people struggle to understand Turkey and Turkey’s culture as it is partly European and partly Middle Eastern. Turkey has been trying to join the EU, but many believe that its population of 72 million (which would make it the second largest country in the EU) causes great concern by many current members of the EU.
To emphasize the lack of US focus on this market, it was noted that there hasn’t been a US Secretary of Agriculture visit to Turkey for at least 35 years. They asked our assistance in encouraging Secretary Vilsack to make a visit to Turkey in the near future. We agreed to pass along the invitation.
With their modern poultry sector, Turkey needs soybean meal as they have virtually no soybean production in the country. It was great to hear the industry representatives thank soybean farmers and the American Soybean Association for its work over the years to introduce modern practices into the country’s poultry industry.
The consulate staff also helped us understand that even though Istanbul is a modern, bustling city that if we were to travel south and east in Turkey we would quickly see a whole another side of the country. SE Turkey (bordering Northern Iraq) is an area of great poverty with many peasants. It is an agricultural area but is barely able to produce enough food to feed the local residents. As in many parts of the world, there is great disparity between the haves and the have nots in Turkey.
We also discussed the influence that Greenpeace and other activists groups are attempting to have on Turkey’s policies toward biotechnology. The industry has been successful in beating back efforts to have the government approve restrictive language, but the battle continues. The good news is that the consumers in Turkey have not yet been unduly influenced by EU politics.
Dirk Jan Kennes, an analyst with RaboBank in the Netherlands provided his thoughts on the long-term outlook for global agriculture. They believe that it is clear that the world will need to increase food, feed and biofuels production by 1.1 billion tons in the upcoming years. Although there are still a number of hectares around the world that can and will come into production, this increased production has to come 1/3 from additional land and 2/3 from increased yields.
RaboBank sees slower growth in meat consumption in the future. Not negative growth, just slower growth. The impact on the slowdown will not be on the volume of meat consumption, but on the value of the meat consumed as consumers will chose lower cuts of meat and more poultry and less pork and beef due to comparative cost.
In summary he argued that we are entering into a period of less profitability due to higher finance costs and lower margins and increased risk due to volatile raw material prices. Long-term sourcing will become a more strategic issue that will impact business models and relationships.
American Soybean Association –International Marketing (ASA-IM) staff from across the Middle East were then introduced by Regional Director Tim Burleigh. Each provided an update on key markets in the region by location and by product category. Overall, the Middle East region imports about 100 million bushels of soybeans each year and the US has 60% of that market. The region has great opportunities for future growth particularly in poultry and aquaculture production. Political instability is always a concern in many parts of the Middle East.
We finished the day by visiting an international poultry expo in the Istanbul Expo Center. The conference brochure claimed that they expected 8,000 attendees over the course of the expo with 283 participating firms exhibiting. These firms were about 40% from Turkey and the 60% from other countries. We walked the expo exhibit and had discussions with a number of key US soybean customers.
Tomorrow we have time to go visit the Grand Bazaar which I am told is the oldest market in the world. Should be an interesting experience. We head for home very early on Sunday morning.
ISA CEO Kirk Leeds interviews ASA-IM Middle East Regional Director Tim Burleigh
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